DECISION MAKING


DECISION MAKING
INTRODUCTION
            Decision making is a complex, cognitive process often defined as choosing a particular course of action. Problem solving is a part of decision making. It is a systematic process. It focuses on analyzing a difficult situation.
            Decision making is the heart of all administrative and managerial functions.
            Decision making is at the core of all planned activities.

DEFINITION
a)     Decision making may be defined as the process of choosing alternatives to achieve a goal.
B.T. Basavanthappa
b)     Decision making is the process of selecting one course of action from alternatives. It is a scientific problem solving process.
Mary Lucita
TYPES OF DECISIONS
There are 3 types of decisions
1)     Managerial decisions
2)     Administrative decisions
3)     Operational decisions

MANAGERIAL DECISIONS
Managerial decisions are of 4 types:
1)     Mechanistic decision: This type of decision is one that is routine and repetitive in nature. Most mechanistic decisions solve problems by habitual responses, standard operating procedures or lerical routines. Tools used for this type of decision include charts, lists, decision tree etc. This is useful daily routine and scheduled activities.
2)     Analytic decision: It involves a problem with a large number of decision variables, where the outcomes of each decision’s alternative can be computed. The computational techniques used to find optimal solutions include linear programming, network analysis, statistical analysis etc.
3)     Judgmental decisions: It involves a problem with a limited number of decision variables, but the outcome of decision is unknown. These type of decisions are useful in marketing investment and to solve personal problems.
4)     Administrative Decisions : These type of decisions are those made by mid-level managers to resolve unusual problem mid level nurse managers are primarily responsible for making this type of decisions that determine patient care quality.
5)     Operational Decisions : This type of decisions are routine governing day to day events and are made according to the prescribed rules and regulations and instructions.
Thus management decisions may be programmed and non-programmed. Programmed decisions are handled through structured techniques.
Non-programmed decisions are novel, unstructured creative decisions that are made to solve the problems.

CLASSIFICATION OF DECISIONS AND LEVELS OF DECISION MAKING BY NURSING ADMINISTRATOR :
            According to Ann Bill Taylor :
Decisions are divided into three categories :
1.      Typical, routine, unimportant decisions
2.      Non-routine decisions
3.      Strategic Decisions

1.      Routine Decisions : Decisions that are more routine, recurring and certain. For example assigning daily coverage. It is made by lower level managers.
2.      Non Routine Decisions : Decisions that are non-routine, non-recurring and uncertain. For example : changing the way of organizing for the delivery of nursing care.
3.      Strategic Decisions : Decisions are made by top executives that commit valuable agency resources to achieve major long term goals. It aims at determining or changing the means and ends of enterprise. They require a through study, analysis and reflective thinking on the part of administrators.

TIME AND BASIS FOR DECISION MAKING
            There are 6 important bases for decision making, which are referred to as aids to decision making. They includes : 
1.      Experience : Experience is the most important and valued basis for making decisions. Experience gives the administrator the requisite vision that trains him to apply his knowledge to the best of its use. The experience removes the fear and the complex and brings confidence in taking decisions.
2.      Authority : Provides an important basis for enabling managers to take quick and sound decisions.
3.      Facts : Decisions become wrong only when adequate facts are not available on the problem. The computer technology has been introduced for supplying greater facts.
4.      Intuition : It includes guess work and common sense view
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
            Research & analysis help in finding out relationships among the other important variables. Research and analysis break down a problem into its component parts for studying the quantitative and qualitative factors.


EXPERIMENTATION
·        This provides another means by which various alternatives can be evaluated
·        Since experimentation becomes expensive for decision making so its largely used.
FOR EXAMPLE
            The best course of action in problems like policy formation, product development, introduction of new organizational technique etc.
STEPS IN DECISION MAKING
            The decision making task can be divided into 6 steps
1)      Making the diagnosis
2)      Analyzing the problem
3)      Searching alternative solutions
4)      Selecting best possible solution
5)      Putting the decision into effect
6)      Following up the decision
1.      Making the Diagnosis : The first step is to determine what the real problem is. If the problem is not ascertained correctly at the beginning, money and effort spent on decision making will be a waste. The diagnosis should not be merely based on one or two visible symptoms. But it should be diagnosed after the analysis of the whole situation.
2.      Analyzing the Problem : The problem should be thoroughly analyzed to find out adequate information and data relating to the situation.
3.      Searching Alternative Solution : After analyzing the problem, attempts are made to find alternative solutions to the problems. This search for alternatives forces the manage to see things from many point of view.
4.      Selecting the Best Possible Solution : Sound knowledge and accumulated experience provides the administrator the ability to select the best solution.

FOUR CRITERIA HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED BY DRACKEE IN SELECTING THE BEST SOLUTION :
1.      Proportion of risk to the expected gain.
2.      Relevance between the economy of effort and the possibility of results.
3.      The time considerations that meet the needs of the situation.
4.      The limitation of resources.
PUTTING THE DECISION INTO EFFECT
            The decisions can only be made effective through the action of other people. There are three important things relating to this preparation are :
·        Communication of decisions.
·        Securing employee acceptance.
·        The timing of decisions
FOLLOWING THE DECISION FOR EVALUATION
            Inspite of all efforts, the decisions may not be accurate mainly because of three reasons :
1.      Some amount of guesswork.
2.      Because of cost and time involved in analyzing the problem.
3.      Limited capacity of the manager itself.
As a safeguard against this incorrect decision the managers are required to institute a system of follow up of the decisions so as to modify them at the earliest.

MODELS OF DECISION MAKING PROCESS
            A manager may approach decision making from following models:
1) Econological model or economic man.
2) Bounded rationally model or administrative man.
3) Simplicity favourite model or view of games man.



1) ICONOLOGICAL MODEL
            In this model, a manager who is faced with a problem weights the economic aspects of all possible courses of action and choose the action that is expected to yield the greatest net gain or the least loss.
            In this model, the following steps have been observed (Simon)
1.   Discover symptoms of the problem.
2.   Set the goal to be achieved or define the problem to be solved.
3.   Develop a criterion against which alternative solutions can be evaluated.
4.      Identify all alternative courses of action.
5.      Consider the consequences of each alternative.
6.      Choose the best alternative.
7.      Act or implement the decision.
Discover symptoms
 


Set goal or define problem                                                 Develop criterion

Develop alternatives

Determine all outcomes                                                      Select alternatives

Act or implement decision

2) BOUNDED RATIONALITY MODEL
            They seek a kind of bounded or limited rationality in decisions.
            The concept of Bounded Rationality Model process three mechanisms.
1.      Sequential attention to alternatives: Here persons examine solutions of a problem sequentially, i.e. if first solution fails to work it is discarded and next solution is considered till he gets acceptable solutions.
2.      Heuristics : A heuristic is a rule which guides the search for alternatives into areas that have a high probability for yielding the solutions. Heuristics look for previous solutions that worked in similar situations.
3.      Satisfying :  This model sees decisions maker in a satisfier. An alternative is satisfactory if.
a.      There exists a set of criteria that describes minimally satisfactory alternatives.
b.      The alternative exceeds all these criteria.
This model describes how decision makers actually arrive at the identification of solutions to organizational problems. This model consists of 8 steps
1.      Set the goal to be pursued or define the problem to be solved.
2.      Establish an appropriate level of aspiration or criterion level.
3.      employ heuristics to narrow problem space.
4.      If no feasible alternative is identified
a.      Lower the aspiration level
b.      Begin the search for new alternative solution
5.      After identifying an alternative
a.      Evaluate it to determine its acceptability
6.      If the identified alternative is inacceptable initiative search for a new alternative solution.
7.      If the identified alternative is acceptable
a.      Implement the solution
8.      Following implementation, evaluate the goals was or was not attained.
1) Set goal or define problem
2) Establish level of aspiration
3) Employ heuristic programmes
4 a) No feasible alternative
4 b) Adjust aspiration level
·        Queuing theory
·        Games theory
·        Programme evaluation and review technique (PERT)
·        Critical path method (CPM)
·        Network analysis techniques
·        Computers in decision making
3) DELPHI Technique
·        It allows members who are dispersed over a geographic area to particular in decision making without meeting face to face.
·        Results of the first questionnaire are centrally complied.
·        Each member is sent a copy of the results.
·        After viewing the results of the questionnaire, members are asked for suggestions again.
·        Review of the results triggers new solutions.
·        The process continues until consensus is reached 
·        Disadvantage : It is time consuming
4) Decision tree
A decision tree is a graphic method that can help the supervisor in visualizing the alternatives available and information needs for a specific problem over a period of time.
Techniques or tools of Decision Making
There are four techniques
1.      Judgmental Technique
2.      Operational research technique
3.      Delphi Technique
4.      Decision tree


1) Judgmental Technique
·        This is the oldest technique of decision making
·        It is based on past experience or intuition about future.
·        It is used for making routine decisions.
·        It is cheap and quickly done.
·        There is more chance of taking wrong decisions.
·        So, this technique is rarely used.
2) Operational Research Technique
·        It is scientific method
·        Operational research may be defined as the analysis of decision problem using scientific method to provide manager the needed quantitative information in making decisions.
Operation research includes many techniques. They are:
·        Linear programming
Decentralized Decision making
·        Decentralized decision making is any process where the decision making authority is distributed throughout a larger group.
·        It also connotes a higher authority given to lower level functionaries, executives and workers.
·        This can be in any organisation of any size from a governmental authority to a co-operation.
·        Decentralized decision making also contributes to the core knowledge of group intelligence and crowd wisdom.





Goals of Decentralizations
·        It encourages motivation and creativity.
·        It allows many minds to work simultaneously on the same problem.
·        It accommodates flexibility and individualizations. Thus, Decentralized decision making tends to create less rigidity and flatter hierarchies in organizations.
·        There will be more bottom up directional information flow, allowing more innovation.
·        This increased flow of information allows for innovation in what is called Total Quality Management.
CONCLUSION
·        Decision making lies deeply embedded in the management process.
·        Decision making needs courage as well as creative thinking on the part of the nurse administrators.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
1)        Mary Lucita, Nursing: Practive and Public Health Administration, Current Concepts and Trends, Second Edition, Page No. 35-53.
2)        B.T. Basavanthappa, Nursing Administration, Jaypee Brothers, 4th Edition, Page No. 58-60.
3)        Bessie L. Marquis, carol J. Huston, Leadership Roles and Management functions in Nursing Lippincott, 4th Edition, Page No. 40, 164-165.
4)        Mary Ellen Grohar- Leadership and Management in Nursing, 3rd Edition, Page No. 86-87.
5)        Ruth M. Tappen, Nursing Leadership and Management. Concepts and Practice, 4th Edition, Page-70.
6)        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/decentralised_decision_making.




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